Summary

Fri, 24 Jul 2009 09:53:11 -0400

While difficult to summarize the general feeling among such a diverse group of engineers, political representatives and entrepreneurs, I’ll try to jot down some thoughts that have been swirling in my head for the past few weeks. First, it was obvious to me that the wave energy industry has already gained considerable momentum over the past two decades. In a few countries, like the UK (especially Scotland) and Ireland, where marine energy can make a huge impact on their total electricity production, governments are really pushing to accelerate the industry with research grants, tax incentives and public outreach. Even though the first machines in the water might be grossly expensive or inefficient, the companies will still be able to sell electricity to the Scottish grid due to the most favorable feed-in tariff in the world (5 ROCs). This still may prove to be a costly mistake for the governments who have already invested in this industry, which will surely draw the ire of their voters. Or, it could be a wise investment that will make them the global leaders in this technology and pay huge dividends in the future. There are a few “X factors” I heard over and over again from my interviewees that currently, which will have a huge impact on the short-term success of the industry.
The price of oil. Despite only being four words long, this factor has had a long history and will probably remain an influential player in the international economy until the end of my lifetime. There have been dozens of books written on “peak oil” and geologists love to speculate about how many barrels are still in the ground. Most oil analysts believe that the price of oil is only going up though. The rate of this increase will largely be determined by governments, speculators and consumers. Soon, it seems, carbon emissions will begin to cost money. Whether this cost will be borne by consumers, refiners or producers will be determined by local, national and international governing bodies. Other oil saving technologies are becoming more popular, such as public transportation, hybrid cars, and hydrogen fuel cells, which all will drive demand down. There are many unknowns in this equations and if someone actually knew what the price oil will be in 1, 5, 10, 50 years, they could make a lot of money in the speculative market. The only reason Dr. Salter started this research in the early 1970’s was the oil crisis. The only reason we may see his groundbreaking work come to fruition may be a similar, albeit longer-lasting, catastrophe.
The role of the U.S. Some researchers in these European countries almost had a sinking feeling that if the U.S. got involved with this research, they would literally just blow everyone else out of the water. Right now, there are a some murmurings from the DOE about allocating a few million dollars to research at Oregon State and Hawaii, but nothing substantial. In order to really tackle the engineering problems in the renwable energy industry we need something along the lines of the Manhattan Project or the Apollo missions. When this country and its people decide they want to do something, they make it happen. These massive, public-funded projects can all be thought of as defending our national interests. If the U.S. can allocate a defense budget for this project, instead of a science budget, I think we will see real innovations. If Obama made the search for viable renewable energy technologies the next big scientific “thing” and he galvanized the public to be behind this research, the U.S. could have a slew of new wind, wave, and solar devices before he left office (in 7.5 years, that is).
The support of national and supranational governments. While the EU and the EC has been behind this research from the beginning, it seems like they are beginning to lose their patience. Scotland and Ireland have governments that are taking action, while countries like Portugal and England seems to be stalling. Financial support from the US government is just starting to roll in. Whether politicians have the foresight and backbone to stick with this research, remains to be seen.

European Marine Energy Center

Tue, 21 Jul 2009 10:16:43 -0400

In my last stop of my “Grand Tour” I met with Neil Kermode, director of the European Marine Energy Center in Stromness, Scotland. A visit to this center is not for the lighthearted- it requires an eight hour train ride from Edinburgh and then a two hour ferry to Stromness. I heard it was easier and more expensive to fly into Kirkwall (the main “city” of less than 10,000 residents on the Orkneys). After missing the first ferry I was supposed to take, I was finally able to meet Mr. Kermode last week. The director of the European Marine Energy Center was first a civil engineer who took up SCUBA diving as a hobby. Naturally when he was offered the chance to head EMEC after the previous director left for NaREC, Mr. Kermode jumped at the opportunity.
The European Marine Energy Center was founded in 2000 when the Science and Technology Committee in the UK government allocated 18 million pounds to accelerate the marine energy industry. The government saw this investment as more efficient then handing over smaller sums of money to many different businesses or groups. By establishing one place where researchers and developers could go to test their devices, the UK government made history. This was and still is the only in-situ test site in the world where devices can get grid connected while being exposed to the open ocean. The devices must be full-scale since the waves that crash here can be up to 15 m in amplitude. By setting up the necessary infrastructure (permits, licenses, electrical wires) in one spot, the UK government took the burden off the developers to each come up with their own test sites. Furthermore, EMEC is standardizing the evaluation process so it will become clear to the interested parties which devices perform better. Developers can then use these test results when they go to utility companies to prove to them how their device performed.
I visited the wave test center site at Billia Croo, which opened in 2000, when the center opened is now currently under construction and expansion. AquaMarine is currently installing their Oyster device in the waters just about 20 m offshore. In the picture, you can see the rig, which they have made to facilatate the installation of the device. Their plan is to drill four holes in order to place a “table” on the seafloor. Their Oyster will then be attached to this table, allowing it a full range of motion. The device produces electricity when the flap moves back and forth with the waves, while the base of it remains stationary since as it is attached to the table. At the end of the summer, Pelamis Wave Power and Ocean Power Technologies will begin to install the moorings for their devices. Mr. Kermode has seen these the manufacturing of these devices and is excited for their arrival. There are four cables that run from the station on land to allow four different devices grid connections. EMEC is expanding their substation to house more electrical equipment, due to the low power quality that these devices will deliver.
Mr. Kermode believes that in 2-3 years, there will be about a dozen or so machines running continuously at test sites around the world (in Mayo, Ireland, the pilot zone in Portugal). In about a decade he believes we will se a few commercial marine energy farms sprouting up in these research hotspots and in two decades we will be able to flip through a catalog of devices that can be used for different conditions. However, he warns me that this timeline, like all things in the renewables industry, is subject to the price of oil. He is confident, however, that the UK government, especially the Scottish Parliament will continue to the support their research. Right now, the policymakers remain enthusiastic, albeit nervous, about the advancement of this industry.
While I hope to write up some more summary thoughts on my trip, I leave you with one parting thought I had on the long train ride back down:
I started this trip asking Dr. Sorensen if this really was going to happen- if he really believed we would see wave energy devices in the water.
I ended the trip asking Mr. Kermode if it was possible that we would not see commercial wave energy farms in the near future.