While difficult to summarize the general feeling among such a diverse group of engineers, political representatives and entrepreneurs, I’ll try to jot down some thoughts that have been swirling in my head for the past few weeks. First, it was obvious to me that the wave energy industry has already gained considerable momentum over the past two decades. In a few countries, like the UK (especially Scotland) and Ireland, where marine energy can make a huge impact on their total electricity production, governments are really pushing to accelerate the industry with research grants, tax incentives and public outreach. Even though the first machines in the water might be grossly expensive or inefficient, the companies will still be able to sell electricity to the Scottish grid due to the most favorable feed-in tariff in the world (5 ROCs). This still may prove to be a costly mistake for the governments who have already invested in this industry, which will surely draw the ire of their voters. Or, it could be a wise investment that will make them the global leaders in this technology and pay huge dividends in the future. There are a few “X factors” I heard over and over again from my interviewees that currently, which will have a huge impact on the short-term success of the industry.

1. 1)The price of oil. Despite only being four words long, this factor has had a long history and will probably remain an influential player in the international economy until the end of my lifetime. There have been dozens of books written on “peak oil” and geologists love to speculate about how many barrels are still in the ground. Most oil analysts believe that the price of oil is only going up though. The rate of this increase will largely be determined by governments, speculators and consumers. Soon, it seems, carbon emissions will begin to cost money. Whether this cost will be borne by consumers, refiners or producers will be determined by local, national and international governing bodies. Other oil saving technologies are becoming more popular, such as public transportation, hybrid cars, and hydrogen fuel cells, which all will drive demand down. There are many unknowns in this equations and if someone actually knew what the price oil will be in 1, 5, 10, 50 years, they could make a lot of money in the speculative market. The only reason Dr. Salter started this research in the early 1970’s was the oil crisis. The only reason we may see his groundbreaking work come to fruition may be a similar, albeit longer-lasting, catastrophe. 
   

2. 2)The role of the U.S. Some researchers in these European countries almost had a sinking feeling that if the U.S. got involved with this research, they would literally just blow everyone else out of the water. Right now, there are a some murmurings from the DOE about allocating a few million dollars to research at Oregon State and Hawaii, but nothing substantial. In order to really tackle the engineering problems in the renwable energy industry we need something along the lines of the Manhattan Project or the Apollo missions. When this country and its people decide they want to do something, they make it happen. These massive, public-funded projects can all be thought of as defending our national interests. If the U.S. can allocate a defense budget for this project, instead of a science budget, I think we will see real innovations. If Obama made the search for viable renewable energy technologies the next big scientific “thing” and he galvanized the public to be behind this research, the U.S. could have a slew of new wind, wave, and solar devices before he left office (in 7.5 years, that is). 
   

3. 3)The support of national and supranational governments. While the EU and the EC has been behind this research from the beginning, it seems like they are beginning to lose their patience. Scotland and Ireland have governments that are taking action, while countries like Portugal and England seems to be stalling. Financial support from the US government is just starting to roll in. Whether politicians have the foresight and backbone to stick with this research, remains to be seen.